Value / Value Pick — A bet where the model's estimated probability is higher than what the sportsbook's odds imply. If the model says a team has a 60% chance to win but the sportsbook is only paying out at 50% implied odds, that gap is "value." Value picks are the only plays shown — no value, no play.
Edge — The size of the value gap, expressed as a percentage. A +7% edge means the model's probability is 7 points higher than the market's implied probability. Larger edge = more value. Only plays with sufficient edge clear the qualifying threshold.
XGB HIGH / MED / LOW — An XGBoost machine learning model trained on historical game features rates the same pick independently. HIGH means the model is 60%+ confident in the bet direction. This is a second opinion that must agree with the edge signal.
Win% / Home WP — The model's estimated probability that the recommended side wins. For totals, this is the probability the total goes the recommended direction (over or under).
Proj Total — The model's projected combined score for the game. Compared against the market line to calculate total edge.
Market / Line — The current sportsbook line at time of model run. The model locks its pick against this number.
Kelly / Units — Suggested bet size as a fraction of your total bankroll, using quarter-Kelly criterion scaled to the confirmed edge. A play showing 1.5u means bet 1.5% of your bankroll. Zero edge = zero units.
LOCKED badge — The pick was locked in at first qualifying run. Stats shown are from lock time, not real-time. This prevents line-chasing.
Weather flag (MLB) — Wind speed and direction at game time. Wind out to CF 10+ mph is favorable for overs; wind in is favorable for unders. Used as a soft filter, not a primary signal.
