Edge — The gap between the model's probability and the market's implied probability. A +5% edge means the model believes the true odds are 5 percentage points better than what the sportsbook is offering. This is the core signal.
XGB HIGH / MED / LOW — An XGBoost machine learning model trained on historical game features rates the same pick independently. HIGH means the model is 60%+ confident in the bet direction. This is a second opinion that must agree with the edge signal.
Win% / Home WP — The model's estimated probability that the recommended side wins. For totals, this is the probability the total goes the recommended direction (over or under).
Proj Total — The model's projected combined score for the game. Compared against the market line to calculate total edge.
Market / Line — The current sportsbook line at time of model run. The model locks its pick against this number.
Kelly / Units — Suggested bet size as a fraction of your total bankroll, using quarter-Kelly criterion scaled to the confirmed edge. A play showing 1.5u means bet 1.5% of your bankroll. Zero edge = zero units.
LOCKED badge — The pick was locked in at first qualifying run. Stats shown are from lock time, not real-time. This prevents line-chasing.
Weather flag (MLB) — Wind speed and direction at game time. Wind out to CF 10+ mph is favorable for overs; wind in is favorable for unders. Used as a soft filter, not a primary signal.
