Edge vs market
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Our projected probability must beat the sportsbook's implied probability by a meaningful margin — not just by a rounding error.
ML confidence gate
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A machine learning model trained on historical data rates the play HIGH or MEDIUM. LOW confidence plays never reach subscribers regardless of edge size.
Monte Carlo confirmation
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10,000 simulated outcomes must confirm the edge holds up under uncertainty — not just in the base case. Stress-tests every projection before it's called a play.
Kelly sizing
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Bet size is calculated from the confirmed edge using the Kelly Criterion (capped at quarter-Kelly). Plays with no real edge get 0 units — never forced.
